Wednesday, 31 August 2011

morroco?

anyone been?
The other half wants a holiday, and it seems more fun than spain.
But then there are the obvious worries.

Opinions?
Usual contact details

What'cha Gonna Do, When The Money Runs Out?

Hat Tip Purple Scorpion

And Harriet from the DT I suppose

Out of the finance pages, so I missed it, but a snapshot of a few Spanish towns and villages where the money simply has ran out.

In one town, Murcia, the civic fleet is out of action, the council owes E120,000 to the two petrol stations, and neither are willing to extend more credit.
The staff have been paid, after a three month delay, its unclear if they were paid up to date, or paid a months wages.
The Town still has E9mn in unpaid bills.

Moia has debts of E25mn, and a population of 5800, E4100 a head. The council isnt sure how to pay the staff in, well, today actualy, and the electricity bill certainly wont be paid.

Will street lights be switched off?
Council Offices?

Remember, this is only partly municipal bonds issued by local councils, which mercifully, the UK lacks (right?), much of it is simply bills stacking up, and up, and up.

If there, why not here?

Tuesday, 30 August 2011

Nobel Prize Winning Tool makes fool of himself, no one notices.



The above, is a picture, showing government spending 2010-2015.

Below, is a quote by a complete tool.

"Britain has jumped on the band-wagon of fiscal tightening in a big way," said Professor Edmund Phelps from New York's Columbia University.

"I have some sympathy with that but I'm not sure it is being implemented as deftly as it should be. If you slam on the brakes too hard you risk throwing the infant through the windscreen," he told The Telegraph at a forum of Nobel laureates on Lake Constance.


From AEP

Now, I narrowly missed out on a nobel prize, so obviously simply lack the required depth of thought, but to my unrecognised pissant brain, spending appears to be increasing by £20bn a year.
Now, I'm pretty sure a 20bn increase is, well, an increase, rather than a cut.

Sunday, 28 August 2011

Knife Sharpener Extraordinare

TrT has had a go with his sharpening steel, it was actualy pretty easy.
Pretty sure I'm doing it wrong, and wrecking the blade, but since it was so blunt as to be useless, I dont think it actualy matters that much.

Lamb Breast slow cooked with an almighty amount of onion and pepper.

Saturday, 27 August 2011

THE FED IS NOT IMPOTENT!!!

Get this through your thick skulls!!!

THE FED CAN PRINT MONEY AND BUY EVERY FUCKING THING THATS FOR SALE

The only question is "is the cure worse than the disease".

Forget bailing out banks, it could buy the entire American finance sector

Friday, 26 August 2011

Franklin and bash

should really just be half an hour.
It kinda doesnt work as two half hour eps spliced.

Just sayin

Thursday, 25 August 2011

Saving Fleets you dont need?

A thought occurs.
People have an odd habit of refusing to risk assets, even when the risk could win the war, and defeat has almost no downside.

Trafalgar
A Numericaly superior Franco/Spanish Fleet, failed to press the attack, and was cut in half and all but annihilated.
The combined Fleet, although the weaker of the two, avoided battle, when battle began, half the fleet ran and left the to their fate.
The Fleet was destroyed, plans to invade England shelved, and the war lost.

Attempting to save the fleet was madness.
Once formed, it should have attempted engagement with the Royal Navy at every opportunity. Defeat was, except for the crews, quite without downside, whereas victory would open up England and victory in the war.

First World War
The German Fleet, numericaly inferior, but technologicaly superior turns and runs, twice, in the battle of Jutland, and remains bottled up throughout the entire war.

Again, a decisive battle ending in German defeat would have had almost no ill effects, the ships had nothing to offer except the destruction of the British Fleet, whereas a decisive battle ending in German Victory would have opened up the channel supply lines to interdiction, quite possibly collapsing the British war effort. Although more likely simply diverting the reinforcement ships to western ports. But even so, Germany threw away massive numbers trying to seize those ports.
It also throws open the option of sustain sheeling of the coastal towns.

Decisive defeat, little impact, decisive victory, wins the war.

Second World War
Germany again, nothing like the same ship numbers, only really poor little Tirpitz.
Sat in a backwaters port and caught TallBoys for the war. Breaking out into Atlantic was proably a risk too far, but playing havoc with conyoys to Russia?
The Ship served little purpose confined to port, used, it could have halted Russia, and if lost, well, no great loss in the grand scheme of things.

I might pop back later and look for some others

Oh, Argentina in the Falklands.
They had a carrier, it was bloody better than ours*, but rather than risk losing the carrier, they opted to lose the war instead.
*In that it was a catapult using model. I dread to think what two dozen skyhawks with enough fuel to take their time could have done to the British Fleet.

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

The Transfer Union

The Mad Lillipudlian argues that Eurobonds are wrong, whats really needed, is a transfer union.

Now, putting aside that using a crisis to establish central economic governance isnt a new idea, it was the plan from day 0, one wonders just what that would look like.

From Wiki
A graph of taxes from Wiki.

And a graph of spending from UK public spending


Now, the problem with an EU regeneration fund is, it just isnt something that governments spend a great deal on.

The UK's big expenditures are healthcare 17%(£110.1bn), pensions 17%(£109.3bn), welfare 15% (£95.1bn) and education 13% (£83.1bn).
The big taxes are Income Tax £155bn, NI £104.6bn, VAT £83.8bn and Corporation Tax at £51.3bn

Now, if the EU took over those taxes, and took over the obligations of providing healthcare, pensions, welfare and education, those four obligations could be cut to some degree, and it would leave vast amounts of money sloshing around to be invested pissed up the wall on increasing the productivity of economies that are lagging behind.

Since employment and social law is already an EU competancy, it wouldnt require any drastic changes to EU law, although national law would have to be ripped up as standardised pensions, welfare nets and such were brought in.

Probably impossible, but interesting.

Monday, 22 August 2011

Gaddafi's defeat will not save Obama's presidency - No ****

Says Tim Stanley

True enough, it wont.
Mostly because US forces buggered off months ago, there only contribution at the moment appears to be the USS Halyburton, a 30yr old OHP class frigate.

Not exactly much scope for a "mission accomplished" speach is there?

If Germany wishes to Immolate itself for racial purity, why shouldnt we provide fuel?

Ambrose councils concensus

The ECB’s Jean-Claude Trichet said “we do not do QE”. Indeed, Germany forbids it. Not only has the Bundesbank forgotten that the Bruning deflation of 1931 destroyed Weimar - not the hyperinflation of 1923 - it is imposing its policy blunder on the whole currency bloc. The visible result of piling monetary contraction on top of fiscal contraction is to push the Club Med over the edge.

The lesson of 2008-2010 is that further QE by the Fed alone risks a dollar slide and a further global crisis. A successful monetary blitz - if required - would need joint action by all major central banks in concert, including the ECB with no 'ifs’, 'buts’, and hostile body language. Some $6 trillion would suffice, or 10pc of global GDP.


I see only folly.
The Germans have gone mad, and they hold EUROpe in their madness. They still see this as some sort of morality fable, Pure Hearted Germans, savers and exporters against swathy greeks and their ilk, borrowers and importers. But they refuse to accept two simple facts. German savers lend their savings to the despised southerners, and German exporters sell to them.

As far as they are concerned, Germany is right, and rightousness will shield them.
Wrong, but the facts do not change because we dislike them.

EUROpe is lost.
We must accept this and we must return to the matter of how to save ourselves in the face of a European pyre.

We need a monetary blitz, we need it now, and we need it to be truely gargantuam.

AEP talks of 10% of global GDP, loathe as I am to say so, $6bn will not suffice for the US, let alone the world.
A far better mark would be for the import states to print almost their GDP.

In the UK, that would mean the BoE printing around $2 trillion, handed out equaly, to everyone over the age of 18, a payment of some £21000, with those under getting a nominal payment, based on age, say, £3 per day.

Anything less is just pissing into the wind.
It might knock back the crisis for a week or a month, or even a year, but soon, it will be back.

£50,000 will enable even the most indebted families to pay off everything but their mortgage, and knock a significant chunk out of that, those in a better position, will have a sizeable store of capital left over.

Coupled with real business reform to encourage real business within the UK, and every business we have could take on new partners, new investment, and boost productivity.

Will Sterling fall?
Of course it will, thats half the point.
China can follow us all the way if its insane enough, Germany will no doubt insist that EUROpe doesnt, and burn for it.

Thats unfortunate, but theres nothing else to be done.

Thursday, 18 August 2011

trt will watch bb?

seeing the squeaker cockolded on live tv has to be worth it

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

The Brazindia Class T26?

It seems everyone is talking about the hopes that we can find a partner for the T26.

Now, I have no special knowledge of what on earth the government thinks its playing at, but maybe, just maybe, its not all that bad?

Now, dont get me wrong, collaberative projects can and do go wrong in truely mind boggling ways.
The Eurofighter was such a disaster, that I've seen serious costed arguments saying the UK could have built its full compliment of 260, for less than the 160 its now getting.
The T45 was born when we pulled out of the Horizon project, itself the bastard offspring of the NFR90 project.

But, these programs, were formed by a coalition of equals. More than equals really, they were in effect a coalition of clones.

We could be polite and say Brazindia are our equals, but you'd be insane to say we are the same.

Part of the problem with the collaberations with our neighbours is we are all bringing basicaly the same skill set to the table, and because theres no task we cant do, we refuse to drop even a fraction of our "fair" workshare. Leading to disasterous complication.

But that wouldnt be a problem with Brazindia.
They simply couldnt build a tier one military ship, so any threats to pull out and go it alone would be obvious bluff. Even if they were to buy 50% of the ships, they simply wouldnt be capable of 500% of the work, never mind 100% of it.
Their choices are buy a foreign design, or operate second or even third tier technology.

But thats not to say they would be useless as coalition partners. Of course, they are useful as additional sales, which reduces the overall cost of our equipment.
The T45 class in theory cost £1bn each, but a seventh ship would cost a mere £650mn.
In reality, they cost £650mn, and there was a £2bn research budget.
But money aside, there remains one vital item they could contribute.
Cheap Labour.

Most of the work on the T26 would simply be beyond them, but theres little reason they could not and should not be allowed to do some of the work on the project.

Building the hull sections is, no offence intended to the shipyard staff, is easy, Steel Warships will be 150 years old by the time the T26 comes into service.

Give them the tables scraps they can do cheaper than us, we keep the real added value parts.

They get a boost to their ship building credability, and a fleet thats two or three times as capable as anything they can build themselves. We get half the development costs paid for, and protect the real added value in our yards.

At the end of the day, a ship is just a lump of metal that carries around stuff, SAMPSON and 2087 are what really matters.

Brazil, I'm not sure about, they dont really have a credible opponant against whom they would need such goodies, except maybe us.

India though, is careening to war with China, a war its in little shape to win on the ground, however, with a fairly modest investment, it could strangle China through a blockade in the India Ocean.

Chinas newest type 95 submarine is nigh on 30 years out of date, against Indias localy produced ASW vessel, who knows, against ours? Our American readers might say, Turkey Shoot?

Saturday, 13 August 2011

is it all in the music?

whilst wondering what the establishment would offer as its next solution to looting teens, Trt thought about music censorship.
Now, putting aside for a moment the difficulty....

Is rap/hop violent?
I know i know.

'lets go be smacking up bitches and capping five-o' sounds violent enough.

But, trt was gaming earlier, and cranked up the Manowar, now, i know that 'fight until we die' is a metaphorical struggle, not a literal wish of dieing with sword in hand .....


Friday, 12 August 2011

random thought, do mrbs need to be equal?

theres a relativly accepted view that a raider force would need 5-7 equal pocket divisions.

How about...
One tier one brigade.
This is on a 5 year rolling rearmament with the best a man can get

a t2 brigade gets the t1 cast offs
a t3 gets the t2 cast offs and so on

The t1 would be eternaly on 'speartip', any other thoughts?

The sheer insanity is just incomprehensible

A Regional Court in Dusseldorf has blocked a Samsung Tablet from sale in the UK.

A Dusseldorf Court, can now decide what may or may not be sold in the UK's shops.

Insanity

Thursday, 11 August 2011

Reading Atlas Shrugged again

It really is a terrible book, but ASOIAF got left in a friends car.

Tuesday, 9 August 2011

fucking bastard scum

trams arent going to train stations.
But they dont tell you this till outside the fucking hilton!

Just fucking shoot them and be done with it

The Three R's, Rioting Rioting and Rioting

A lot has been said to shift blame from the rioters to the politicians, about how the rioters were failed in their youth by the education system.

Now this is probably true.

But how many of the rioters were sat at the back of class throwing things at the "swots" at the front?

The rioters made a choice when they were children, to fuck about and cause trouble rather than pay attention and learn.

Should that decision have been respected?
Of course not, but not a damned soul in this country can TRUTHFULLY say they personaly could not have done more than they did for themselves.
I sure as shit cant.

25 and never had a job?
Not my fucking problem mate.

The Government has a choice, either it crushes the riots, or it encourages more, there is no middle ground.
Read the riot act to them and be ready to dispose of the bodies.

Monday, 8 August 2011

Apparently, I'm abrupt

Sending an email at 12.15, saying


Hi ABC
Are the week xy numbers available yet?
TrT


Numbers which were due at 12.00, is improper.
grrrr

Friday, 5 August 2011

Get it signed you big girls.

http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/138

First you're wrong

Then its simply impossible.
Then it was ther
e idea all along.

For a week now, i've seen lots of arguements for keeping the euro, all boil down to, its too difficult to go back.

Its in its final stage now

Thursday, 4 August 2011

There is no Defence for Defence!

Inspired by Gabriele, commenting at JediBeefTrix

Its probably best you read through the comments there before continueing.




Hopefully, above, is a picture of the Falklands Islands, with the positions of the Argentine Garrison, mapped, sort of, just locations where there were Argentinians, if you wish to get a grasp of strength, Wiki has a reasonable breakdown.
Roughly, there was a Motorised Battalion with additional support, roughly 1000 men a piece operating as a garrison of the two largest settlements on West Falkland, Points E and F.
Points C and D mark Goose Green / Darwin, manned by roughly 1200 men in total, with significant Artilery and Air Defences.

The rest of the forces were scattered around Stanley, along a roughly 20 miles deep box.

********************
There we also numerous other pockets scattered at likely landing sights, the landings at San Calos water were resisted by a platoon roughly 60 strong according to wikipedia, however I've not been able to find a thourough listing of any such "penny packet" garrisoning of beaches, so have ignored them, one assumes that once that once the landings had taken place at San Carlos, the remainder made their way back to the main force at Stanley
********************


Now, the Entire Falklands Garrison was not more than 13,030 strong, worked out from 649 killed, 1068 wounded, and 11313 captured, but many of those wounded and killed were from the Navy off the islands or the Airforce above them.
Given that the Argentines were flying out dead and wounded, and flying in reinforcements right up to the end, I'd guess the occupation force was roughly 11,000 strong on average.
Now, 11,000 is a lot of men, admitadly, they had very little heavy equipment, but nor did we, although next time, the Argentines are unlikely to be able to land or support any heavy vehicles, whereas we should be able to land some heavy kit.
Even so, outnumbered 2:1, you're supposed to outnumber the enemy 3:1 to attack a defended position, so in theory, we're actualy outnumbered 6:1.

But are we?

The enemy was not a force of 11,000, and a defender never will be, it was, as we saw, a force of 1000, isolated, a force of 1000, isolated, a force of 1200, isolated, and a force of 7800, supported with an airbridge.

Its interesting to read through the flight reports kindly located for me by Grand Logisitcs, its interesting to note that quite a lot of flights were launched more or less blind, to interdict helicopter travel between the different sites, no doubt some get through, and some vehicles do, but theres a difference between evactuating a few wounded by Lynx/Land Rover and reinforcing with several battalions from Chinook/Warrior.
One can sneak through, the other just cant.

With the forces divided, it becomes a simple matter to isolate and destroy accept surrender of each force individualy. Were we land a "Pocket Division" near Port Howard, the occupation force would be insane to resist. The MRB/PD can then rebus, sail down to Fox Bay Village, and again, outnumbered 5:1 and entirely outgunned, the defenders have no choice but to surrender, or die messily. 18% of the enemy force defeated for virtualy no loss.

The defenders at Goose Green have no doubt cottoned on to whats coming for them, but what do they do?
Its a 50 mile trek from Goose Green to, relative, safety at Stanley. A single lightly loaded Land Rover can probably make it in, 3 hours?
But there are 1200 men at Goose Green, along with artilery pieces, air defences, masses of ammunition, food and other war materials.
It took 45 Cdo 9 days to March from San Carlos to Teal Inlet.

My Pocket division would have air support from a helicopter carrier mounting 8 Apaches, and a Strike Carrier mounting 36 F35Cs. Even if the F35s are spending most of their time mounting CAPs, they would be able to mount the odd overflight, and not even the washouts who end up in the wet airforce (relax, joke) could miss the trail left by 1200 pairs of boots and 50+ vehicles. Once there is a rough position, or even a trail to follow, well, gunships can start following it.

The Highway of Death shows what happens when retreating ground forces are left to the tender mercy of airpower.

So, either they run, and are destroyed, or they stay put, and, when the MRB turns up, they surrender.
30% of the enemy force is already killed or captured, and hopefully, your ground forces havent fired a shot yet.

Might add to this, or another post

**********
I feel I must point out I came up with this before I read about Tywin Lannister pulling much the same trick on the border forts of the Riverlands.
Yes, TV does pretty much tell me what books to read
**********

I do intend top add to this, but, am still thinking for now.
Needless to say, the machine gun company at point P seems to be all on its lonesome....

Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Pie in the Sky?

Hows this for out of the box thinking?

Of 57 Lib Dem MP's
48 should be ministers.

Thats truely insane.

Can I fly?

Lets say I jump out of a plane.

If I hit the ground, it will hurt.
Therefore, I will not hit the ground.
If I will niot hit the ground, then I must be able to fly

Such is the tortured logic defending the Eurozone

And I thought Berkeley was a good school?

The Greek government has no cash.
It cannot borrow anymore cash.

Greece has a choice, it either ceases to pay what it owes, to pensioners, to the unemployed, ,

Future Artilery Needs

Having a bit of a natter over at JediBeefTrix about the Royal Artilery

I'm of the opinion that Brigade / Pocket Division supplied with airsupport (both fixed and heli) shouldnt need more than 6 Self Propelled guns, and an Artilery "regiment" of 3 batteries, 6 SPG, 6 SHORAD, 6 UAV* would be sufficient

*UAV control stations
possibly with two work stations, so 12 UAVS.
Each battery would have course have additional support vehicles, ammo carriers ect.

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

A whole New World?

Guardian out of touch as ever?

Throw in the expense of the chicken coop, and the start-up costs were already pushing past £500 – before one egg had even been laid.


Mine was under £400, and thats for a kick arse coop that will last 20 years with no maintenance and and massive, self built, run that will last 5+ years, and used £60 of timber

The ongoing costs include mash, corn and the rather frightening prospect of veterinary fees, should your birds suffer any of the multiple ailments listed in the chicken-keeping manuals


Chickens eat 125g of chicken pellets a day
A 25kg bag of chicken pellets is £8.60
Thats 4.3p a day.

But garden chickens dont eat 125g of pellet food, 3/4 of their diet will be grass, and anything slow enough they can catch, small enough they can swallow, or weak enough they can pull apart. Full grown frogs, gone in seconds.
So really, we're looking at a penny a day food.

Vet fees? Its a chicken, wring its neck and buy a new one.

At 6 eggs a week, and 25p an egg (Tesco Free Range), hens make a gross profit of £1.44 a week and Project Hen has a payback period of roughly two years, with a lifetime of 20 years and moderate additional capital costs, new chickens and run timber.

Noted by Madam Irrelevent is not revolution

A section of the libertarian bloggosphere has begun a campaign to "note" members of thwe establishment that displease them.

I'm afraid its pointless.
Its far far far too impersonal.
You dont matter.

If you really want to have an effect, youre going to have to do better.

Find out the name of the magistrate who passed sentance.
From that, a quick check of phone books and electoral registers, even face book, will find an address.
Then find out what other cases the magistrate has sat, and a few cases where she let of burglers or some such.
Design and Print 250-500 leaflets detailing the behaviour of the magistrate, a deliver them to their neighbours.

You will get a reaction.

Doom of the EUro zone in a paragraph?

A little late in spotting it, but who cares

Italy’s real M1 deposits have been contracting at a 7pc rate over recent months, and M3 is not far behind. This is catastrophic.
.....
German M3 is growing at 8pc


M3 in Germany is positive 8%
M3 in Italy is negative 2%

A 10% spread in M3

M3 in the US is about 5%
Despite all the money printing of the Fed, US M3, a decent measure for inflation, is less than that of Germany.

Without massive floods of cash, Italy will plunge into deflation.
Without massive droughts of money, Germany will plunge into a wage/price spiral.

Coupled with this, Italy will be out of cash come september, without borrowing more, are we nearing the cliff edge?

I just dont see the way out here?
The can cant be kicked.
Italy needs to borrow hundreds of billions of Euros a year, the only lender is Germany, and the loans will never be paid back, simply rolled over, with interest paid by further borrowing.
With Greece it was easy to pretend it was all real loans, with real intent to repay.
With Spain and Italy?

So, does the Euro fall, or does Germany become Santa Clause, and eventualy, an iPig?

Monday, 1 August 2011

Another Thought on the EFSF

I mentioned recently that the EFSF is at breaking point, with two of "the big four" unable to contribute, a third about to cross that line, and the two already over actualy contemplating tapping it for funds, but a thought in the back of my mind failed to make it to paper.

Lets say France goes over, and borrows at 3.6%
Spain taps the EFSF for loans at 3.5%

How long until a Frenchie points out Frances "good" economic behaviour has been punished, and Spains is being rewarded with lower financing costs?



We have walked into a system where anyone over the emergency rate is allowed to borrow at the ER, which means the ER becomes the standard rate, until its repeated tapping pulls Germany into line with it, and we have a defacto Eurobond.
Or Germany crosses over, and the whole project collapses.