Saturday, 30 August 2014

Farage steps down and becomes an "honoured father" figure, Carswell takes on the leadership?

Seems, plausable.
The Farage show has ran its course, hes too divisive and the money men dont want to back him anymore.

Carswell has a damned good chance of fighting and winning Clacton.  Will his association follow him?  Will they follow a Cameron parachuted "moderniser"?

I havent renewed my Tory Membership in a while, if Carswel takes the reigns of UKIP, I will be joining them, and remember, I'm an active activist,  my fat little legs put out 5,000+ leaflets most years.

The Carswellians and the Hannanistas might not be the majority of the party, but they are the most active on the ground.

Thursday, 21 August 2014

about those a10s

90% of Ukraine sorties over rebel territory have resulted in the loss of the aircraft
4 su25s have been shot down.

The su25 is an armoured close support aircraft, roughly the soviet version of the a10

The Donetsk Militia are deploying manpads at a phenomenal level, it appears at least a 4 missile team per platoon.
With Russian based serious firepower like the s300 keeping the ceiling low, and the aircraft having little option but to fly low and slow to deploy its eye guided weapons

Its a turkey shoot.

There are just so many incoming missiles that countermeasures run out and pilots are over whelmed.

As for Ukraine
This is madness
They can't win this war, Phyrus would pity the price they are paying
They might squash the rebels, but at the cost of their armed forces, and they lack the funds to replace their kit.

Europe might show up with brochures, but it will be expecting to sell Typhoons, not gift them, and the US has no interested in proving a multi billion dollar arms aid package, it wouldn't sell the F35 even if they could afford it.
The chance of Putinists getting in the pilot seat is much to high.

But I digress
The days of armour protecting aircraft are long gone

Saturday, 16 August 2014

Just how big a mess is the army in?

UKAFC has a long break down on the 2020 army structure, but I think he misses a few points.

The new infantry battalion 561 all in
Three Rifle Companies
A Support Company
A HQ Company

Each Rifle Company will have
2 Regular Platoons
1 Reserve Platoon
1 Regular Support Platoon (6 GMPGs)

The Army has given up on rapid intervention.

Anyone expecting the Three Reserve Platoons to show up at full strength on no notice for a shooting war is out of their minds.  Significant, if unspecified, numbers of reserves are unable to make it to all of the UK training events, of which they will know about long in advance, but all made it to the jolly in Kenya...

In a serious event, how many are going to turn up?  How many will turn up fully or even mostly trained?
Any realistic rapid intervention plan must start with just the regulars, and the reservists trickling in

No, its a plan for Refighting Afghanistan, nothing unexpected.

But it gets worse

The Future Army 2020 structure preserved combat arms at the expense of the support arms they need to function effectively, if at all.
My thinking on this was simply that the army would have a large number of undeployable battalions, or only lightly deployable.
Its somewhat worse than that.
Some functions that would normally be delivered by outside logistics or engineers have become organic.

The Support Company has lost the Sustained Fire GPMG platoon, replaced with an assault pioneer force, covering explosive breaching, water purification, concreting.......

The HQ Company has gained a 50 strong REME detachment

Of the 561 personnel, as many as 100 shouldnt really even be in the unit, an additional 90-120 arent really in the unit!
It wouldnt be a stretch for the actual reliable rifle strength of the new battalion to be as low as 350 men.
But hey, at least we saved some cap badges....

Sunday, 10 August 2014

Why are the British armed forces so unable to deploy?

The Good Doctor muses on the current situation in Iraq
The British are unable to intervene because our intervention forces are already deployed to Poland

I do not dispute he is correct, but I do dispute that he should be correct.

The British Army remains nearly 100,000 strong

There are fewer than 4,000 in Afghanistan, who have fallen back to Bastion and a nearby observation post.
There is a plan to send 1,350 to Poland for two months at the end of the year

Group A will probably be home or less than a thousand strong before Group B deploys.

The British Army has become that utterly dysfunctional that a 2% deployment rate, neither of which is an actual shooting war, is all it can manage.

Use it or lose it at its finest.

Sunday, 3 August 2014

Argentina in brief

Market Oracle went full on batshit crazy a while ago, but theres the odd good article on there every now and again.

This is one.

Who are we to lecture them?

Now, I dont mean in a, they are gods chosen people and we are mere, I dont know, not chosen I suppose, or chosen differently?  Do Jews even have heaven?  Most of my religious learning came from South Park.

But on a practical sense, who the fuck are we to lecture them?
The UKs supposed anti terror expertise is very very questionable.

In Northern Ireland, we "won" by giving up on democracy and putting all sides in power and, more importantly, on the payroll, provided they behaved.
Good for "peace" I suppose, but not exactly a good way to embrace democracy.  Its simply not possible for Northern Irelands government to change, unless a new side resorts to violence to stake its claim.

In Iraq, our muddled intervention saw the UK banished from the cities we were supposed to police, turned over to local militia, until the Tyrant we put in power launched an ill planned and poorly executed attack, which was successful.  He didnt see the need inform the UK, let alone ask our help.

Iraq has as most of you will know fallen in to civil war, with three factions two of them pretty much based on the rampant slaughter of civillians

Afghanistan, our efforts at peace keeping and nation building were quickly reduced to refighting rorkes drift, with isolated companies  limited to holding their base camp, mounting short patrols nearby and hoping the resupply helicopter didnt get shot down.
The ANA and ANP are matching our efforts, leaving the Taliban with full control of the countryside and set to force the newly reformed Northern Alliance back to the north.

The Israelis have gone from a situation where armoured divisions crossed their borders on a regular basis with plans of killing the state, to one where Suicide Squads cross their borders on a regular basis with plans to kill masses of civilians, to one where rockets are fired to kill a few civilians, to one where rockets are fired to harass a few civilians.

Far from preaching to them the right way, we should copying the effective way from them

Monday, 28 July 2014

Caution, your lawyer is damned fool if he lets you accept one!

And so Ruffly has been given a handgun, a bottle of whisky and a dark room.

In theory, a police caution can only be given/accepted if three tests are passed
  • there must be evidence of guilt sufficient to give a realistic prospect of conviction;
  • the offender must admit the offence;
  • the offender must understand the significance of a caution and give informed consent to being cautioned.
10. The issue of a simple caution depends on the alleged offender agreeing to accept the caution. If an offender refuses to accept the caution, a prosecution should normally follow. 

But in practice, cautions are used by the police as "quick wins" offered as a first resort on a multitude of offences with the flimsiest of evidence, if any evidence at all.

If you are anyone of any importance, they would *never* give up the chance of an actual conviction

Unless anyone has some hard statistics on the number of refused cautions that result in trials and convictions?

Friday, 25 July 2014

Out of their minds!

At every stage of the Ukraine Crisis, the "west" has thrown up a paper wall and dared Russia to walk through it, and at every stage, Russia has done.

Now, a Dutch Brigade so green its wikipedia page* is being written right now is preparing to move to secure the crash site.

A site the rebels have already secured.

Have the rebels agreed to hand it over?
Do the Dutch plan to seize it?
What if the rebels (or Russians) shoot back?

Its a third of the Dutch field force and one in five members of the army.  It deploys without rrmour, artillery, and one assumes any serious ammunition stockpile.

What if Russia crosses this line and shells the Brigade?  Shoots down the the Brigades Helicopters?

Are they expecting the Polish army to march on Moscow?
The Turks to force the Roki Tunnel?
France to Flood the Urals with French Blood?

Has anyone seriously considered the next move if this Brigade is shot at?  Surrounded?  Captured?  Killed?


Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Celebrity Rehabing

I've been arguing with a friend about addiction being difficult (mostly for celebs) to deal with.

My solution?
For £100,000 per year, I will follow you around 24 hours a day, and if you take drugs or whatever, I will beat you unconscious with a baseball bat and drag you back to your hotel for sleepy time.


No super rich person has an excuse for indulging their drug habit.

If you have a nice car I'll double as a driver.

Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Goose Green.

Goose Green is one of those things that I just dont understand on any level.

Argentina deployed nearly a  thousand men to block the bridge between the north and south of East Falkland.  This force was rendered pointless, because the UK landed on the north, rather than the south.

The UK, for reasons I have yet to grasp any sensible justification for, sent a force two thirds of the size* of the defenders, to attack an utterly immobile and completely nonthreatening enemy position.

I periodically try and find some further about this.
I got lucky, and found Major Croslands account.

We stayed at Camilla Creek House for a period of time. While we were there a breach of security happened when, for some inexplicable reason, the World Service told the world and his wife where we were. That involved 400 of the enemy being flown in and positions being turned round to meet our likely advance.
We then heard that six helicopters had landed to my south with reinforcements but we managed to get a few rounds of ammunition off which landed right on top of them and dispersed them. There was still the thought in the back of my mind that there were one or two hundred blokes who had been landed fresh and could catch us with a possible counter-attack.

Now, that changes a bit.
There still seems little to no reason to attack the point, although the force sent seems a little more reasonable.  Which of course throws up further questions about Argentine Strategy.
The moment the UK decided to attack, Goose Green was doomed, eventually.  No matter how valiantly its defenders fought, naval bombardment, expenditure of ammunition and logistics meant it was only ever going to end one way.

So, why double their losses?  The equipment was lost, but they could have sent the helicopters to retrieve the soldiers for the defence of Stanley

*3:1 needed for a successful attack right?