Monday, 28 July 2014

Caution, your lawyer is damned fool if he lets you accept one!

And so Ruffly has been given a handgun, a bottle of whisky and a dark room.

In theory, a police caution can only be given/accepted if three tests are passed
  • there must be evidence of guilt sufficient to give a realistic prospect of conviction;
  • the offender must admit the offence;
  • the offender must understand the significance of a caution and give informed consent to being cautioned.
10. The issue of a simple caution depends on the alleged offender agreeing to accept the caution. If an offender refuses to accept the caution, a prosecution should normally follow. 

But in practice, cautions are used by the police as "quick wins" offered as a first resort on a multitude of offences with the flimsiest of evidence, if any evidence at all.

If you are anyone of any importance, they would *never* give up the chance of an actual conviction

Unless anyone has some hard statistics on the number of refused cautions that result in trials and convictions?

Friday, 25 July 2014

Out of their minds!

At every stage of the Ukraine Crisis, the "west" has thrown up a paper wall and dared Russia to walk through it, and at every stage, Russia has done.

Now, a Dutch Brigade so green its wikipedia page* is being written right now is preparing to move to secure the crash site.

A site the rebels have already secured.

Have the rebels agreed to hand it over?
Do the Dutch plan to seize it?
What if the rebels (or Russians) shoot back?

Its a third of the Dutch field force and one in five members of the army.  It deploys without rrmour, artillery, and one assumes any serious ammunition stockpile.

What if Russia crosses this line and shells the Brigade?  Shoots down the the Brigades Helicopters?

Are they expecting the Polish army to march on Moscow?
The Turks to force the Roki Tunnel?
France to Flood the Urals with French Blood?

Has anyone seriously considered the next move if this Brigade is shot at?  Surrounded?  Captured?  Killed?


Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Celebrity Rehabing

I've been arguing with a friend about addiction being difficult (mostly for celebs) to deal with.

My solution?
For £100,000 per year, I will follow you around 24 hours a day, and if you take drugs or whatever, I will beat you unconscious with a baseball bat and drag you back to your hotel for sleepy time.


No super rich person has an excuse for indulging their drug habit.

If you have a nice car I'll double as a driver.

Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Goose Green.

Goose Green is one of those things that I just dont understand on any level.

Argentina deployed nearly a  thousand men to block the bridge between the north and south of East Falkland.  This force was rendered pointless, because the UK landed on the north, rather than the south.

The UK, for reasons I have yet to grasp any sensible justification for, sent a force two thirds of the size* of the defenders, to attack an utterly immobile and completely nonthreatening enemy position.

I periodically try and find some further about this.
I got lucky, and found Major Croslands account.

We stayed at Camilla Creek House for a period of time. While we were there a breach of security happened when, for some inexplicable reason, the World Service told the world and his wife where we were. That involved 400 of the enemy being flown in and positions being turned round to meet our likely advance.
We then heard that six helicopters had landed to my south with reinforcements but we managed to get a few rounds of ammunition off which landed right on top of them and dispersed them. There was still the thought in the back of my mind that there were one or two hundred blokes who had been landed fresh and could catch us with a possible counter-attack.

Now, that changes a bit.
There still seems little to no reason to attack the point, although the force sent seems a little more reasonable.  Which of course throws up further questions about Argentine Strategy.
The moment the UK decided to attack, Goose Green was doomed, eventually.  No matter how valiantly its defenders fought, naval bombardment, expenditure of ammunition and logistics meant it was only ever going to end one way.

So, why double their losses?  The equipment was lost, but they could have sent the helicopters to retrieve the soldiers for the defence of Stanley

*3:1 needed for a successful attack right?

Has the US overstepped on sanctions?

The US is stepping up sanctions against Russia, targeting debt over 90days.

According to ambrose, Russia needs to roll over 715bn in dollar debt owed to EU banks.
That is conventional wisdom.

But as the maxim goes, if you owe the bank 715bn dollars the bank has a problem.

Russia doesn't 'need' to rollover that debt, what's EUrope going to do if it just defaults?  Threaten to lock it out of markets its already locked out of?  Invade?  Or roll over the debt in defiance of US sanctions?

Its easy to bully nk, they never traded anyway, bullying Iran was harder, the weaker EU states skirted the law because Iran was the only state willing to provide oil on credit to them.

The US is gambling that France and Germany will take the pain for US policy.
Not sure I see that happening

Sunday, 20 July 2014

Does Russia want intervention?

A NATOish intervention in Ukraine could be of great practical help to Putin.

By political reality, it would be air strikes
By political reality, montreux, the US cant send Carriers in to the Black Sea

We can also expect Belarus to deny use of its airspace.

So that leaves airstrikes coming from Turkey, Romania, or Poland.
Russian Radar and Signint based in Belarus and Transnistria would be able to forwarn the rebels about incoming strikes from Poland, and the Black Sea Fleet do the same from Turkey and Romania.

And of course, any Russian systems on the Russian side of the border.

Information wins wars, and intervention in Ukraine would give Russia bucket loads of it.  They dont even have to hide, we could hardly shoot at a Russian ship tracking a strike package, or a Russian S400 in Belarus or Russia, Jamming wouldnt help either, we might as well send them the technical manuals for how we intend to jam their radar in future

But we couldnt afford not to either, but the rebels can quite easily plug in to the wider Russian net, and shoot using their targettng data.

The Rebels cant win, but Putin would happily sacrifice them to gain the opportunity to scan the best of the west.

Thursday, 17 July 2014

Not be a dick but, wtf was it doing flying there in the first place?

Civies shouldnt fly over shooting wars...

you're all ****ed now!

The fed is beginning to end QE.
Four And a Half TRILLION dollars are being yanked from the system.
The currency defence pool of the BRICS bank stands at 1/45th of that.

The developing world that accepted asset bubbles over currency appreciation is about to see those bubbles popped painfully in a wave of defaults.  EUrope that pinned its hopes on a second 95-05 to save the day is in for a surprise.

And the UK, who allowed sterling to climb to over 1.7 to the dollar (I remember the days of 1.3) has to my mind the biggest currency buffer in the world.  When the world immolates, you can't help getting burnt, but expect those who soaked themselves in petrol to fall.

Wednesday, 16 July 2014

BRICS Bank - Game Changer, we've just gone from Rugby League to Rugby Union...

Seriously, this is the biggest none story ever.

The BRICS have opened a bank, billed as a $200bn mega bank, which it would be, if this was 1870, and $200bn was a lot of money.  Its not, but even if it was, $200bn is just the headline grabbing number.

The reality is, half of that, is, "a reserve currency pool", an empty pool, of the rest, it looks like only $10bn is actually committed, and that paltry sum, over SEVEN years.

This is so unimportant, Market Oracle and Zero Hedge have ignored it.

Monday, 14 July 2014

Wet Shaving

I cant believe I haven't posted about this yet?

I switched to Wet Shaving in November 2012.

Partly, because I was getting two days out of a Mach3, and it was near bankrupting me (even buying trade packs thats a pound a day!) and partly because, lets be honest, it looks manly as hell.

I started off with, well, some pretty low cost gear.  A "starter pack" of a stand, brush, cheap soap in bowl, a mixer pack of half a dozen brands of blade, and my one upgrade, the Merkur 34c, a budget handle, but a nice one none the less.

First impressions were positive, its a new skill to learn, and if you mess up, you will peel your face, but you could "accidentally" nick your face, if you cut yourself, you new exactly what you have done wrong, and you dont do it again.  The difference between a 20p blade and a 40p blade is about £400, the difference is just unbelievable, and yes, a 40p feather is head, shoulders and balls above a £2 Mach3.  Finally, Sandlewood, is talcum power flavour, its not a cool grown up smell, its baby powder.

Step Two.
I ordered a few more soaps, lavender and almond, nicer smells, but they were still cheap soaps, which I regret, shaving soap lasts a long arse time, at least a year to use a bowl I think.

Step Three
Just received an aftershave balm, Geo F Trumper Skin Food, in a 500ml bottle that should last two years I figure, and 50 more Feathers, laugh all you want, but thats 50-100days at most,
The balm is actually really handy.

Cost Benefit.
"Modern" Shaving for a year cost me £365, plus face gloop, which I never really tracked.

Wet shaving blades for a year cost me £73, leaving, if you want a one year payback, £292
£40 gets you a proper top end soap
£95 gets you a much better brush than I own
£30 gets you a quality handle
£38 gets you a big arse bottle of balm

That still leaves a big chunk of change for a nice cologne, perhaps some matching shower soap.