Thursday, 26 March 2015

Ebola keeps on ticking

200 deaths per week
200 to 400 cases per week

Its not the disaster of 2000 per week predicted, 20,000 even, but its just not stopping.

Just sayin

Because *Science* bitchez

TrT has been playing with a new fangled HRM thingy for the gym and logging food.

And following on from this, goes in to calories out.

Now, there seems to be rather a lot of BroScience around what should be a pretty simple but of maths, although that said, I havent done MATHS mechanics in 12 years and PHYSICS mechanics in 13 so who knows, there will be some misuse of power and work and shit, fuck off, I'm an accountant now and dont have to deal with it.

Lets start with a treadmill, and F = MA

Force (newtons) = Mass (kg) multiplied by Acceleration (metres per second per second)

Well
My fat arse rocks in at 85kg.
A treadmill at 10kph, is accelerating a stationary object at, (10*1000/60/60), 2.7777 metres per second
85*2.777 is 236, newton metres per second(?), or handily, 236 watts

To not be thrown off the end (or run in to the bar), I need to to be providing a matching 236 watts.

Ok, thats not actual that helpful, Or is it?
Well, for all the mystery that surrounds it, a Calorie is a pretty simple thing, coming from Calor, which is greek or some shit for heat, and its the amount of energy required to heat, 1ml(?) of water by 1degree centigrade.  Helpfully, round here, its 4.1joules ish.

A Watt is a Joule per second

So, if we divide out 236 watts of sweat by our 4.1 joules of heating, we get 57 calories per second.

Hold on there science TrT, are you saying I can burn 57 calories per second at a modest jogging speed?
Why Yes, erm, questioning TrT, you can, the problem is, a calorie is not calorie.  When discussing food, we use the "Dietary Calorie", which is a kilocalorie, so lets divide that 57 by 1000, and we get 0.057, but thats per second.
If we multiply it by 60, we get a 3.5 calories per minute, and if we multiply that by 30 minutes, we get 103 calories.

Your running machine will give you a much higher number, it assumes you are an inefficient fuckwit and when you run you flail around, which is fair enough, it will also include the calories you burn just standing around making new skin cells and growing hair.

Weight Lifting
Now this is rather harder

Here, we have Mass, Height, and Gravity.

Lets say we are super beefcake, and lift a 200kg weight
And we go from ground right up to two metres
And we do this on earth.

We get 200*2*9.81 = 3924joules
Divide that by 4.1 to turn our joules to calories, and by a further 1000 to turn our calories to kcal, and we get, well just shy of 1 calorie.

A more realistic lift of 50kg, 3x8 set/rep, burns 5.7 calories

But I'm not sure.
From a potential energy point of view, I'm pretty sure I'm on the money
But if we go back to F=MA, to hold that weight off the gound and steady, requires further energy.

Anyway, I was bored at work today and played with spread sheets, feel to check my maths and shoot holes in my reasoning.

Friday, 20 March 2015

Is the world running out of weapons?

Since 1918, (or at least 45) the world has been in or leaving a long term war pretty much none stop, till 1973(?) if we dont count the cold war.

Its amazing how many nations have managed to arm themselves with the cast offs of those wars.

Cheiftain Tanks, Skyhawk fighters, fleets of WW2 era destroyers to cruisers


And then nothing.
The major powers have kept their kit, delaying replacement, running kit into the ground, cutting force levels to eek out extra life.

So, what?
There are new build "budget" aircraft, but the likes of the Gripen arent cheap by any measure, less than the high end craft, but considerably more than combat vets rescued from the boneyard.

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

I should be allowed to punch people who make stupid budget codes

For the uninitiated, a Budget Code, comes in two parts, the cost centre, and the nominal code

The cost centre explains the *who* and the *where* of the entry.
The nominal explains the *what* 

So
For, Walmart, we might have a (long) Cost Centre of

US-Tx-100-D-M
Or
UK-Nw-057-B-S

Which could be the country - US/UK
State / Region - Texas / Northwest
Store number - The 100th store in Texas / the 57th in the UK
The section - Lets go with Dairy and Bakery
And the spender, lets go with Manager and Supervisor

UK-Nw-057-B-M is perfectly valid, its the same place, but the money was spent by the manager not the supervisor

So, this cost code lets us identify exactly where money was spent, and who spent it


Following the Cost Centre, we get the nominal code, this explains WHAT has been spent (or earnt)
And this is where people drive me up the fucking wall and make me want to hurt them.

Lets say you have a nominal code for "shelving", 1234

US-Tx-100-D-M/1234\$100
UK-Nw-057-B-M/1234\£100

Tell us that
The Dairy Manager at store 100 in Texas of United States has spent $100 on shelving
The Bakery Manager at store 57 in the North West of the UK has spent £100 on shelving

If however, 1200 is "Bakery Shelving", 1201 is Bakery trolleys, 1300 is Dairy Shelving and 1301 is Dairy trolleys, you have completely missed the fucking point, you should probably sack your FD, and maybe even throw yourself off the fucking roof.


Now, this may all seem like a mad rant, and you are right, I am a fucking lunatic at the best of times, but this actually matters.
My job at the moment, in theory, is to squeeze more revenue out of a business.
The problem is, whereas I would like to know how many soft drinks are sold in the shop, and the cafe, and the pub, and the restaurant, what I actually know, is how many SHOP SALES there were in the FUCKING SHOP, all of them, all of the SHOP SALES ARE SHOP SALES BECAUSE THEY ARENT GOING TO BE FUCKING RESTAURANT SALES IN THE FUCKING SHOP ARE THERE.

But I point this out and people look at me like Ive lost my mind, yes, I can wade through 10,000 fucking invoices and count how many cans of coke you bought last year, but I'm billing you a fuckton an hour!!!

Friday, 13 March 2015

The future belongs to west

http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2014-15/world-ranking

Of the top ten universities in the world,
Seven are in the United States, Three are in the United Kingdom

Of the next ten,
A further eight are in the United States, one is in Switzerland, and one is in Canada

Of the next, eleven,
A further seven are in the United States, and one each from the UK, Japan, Singapore, and Germany.

Of the next nine,
Only (lol) two more are from the US, three are from the UK, Australia and Switzerland have one, and canada two.

Of the final ten to round out the top 50
Four more are American, Two are Chinese, a third is Hong Kongian, one is from Sweden, one from Australia, and one from Korea

22 of the top 31 are American, 4 are English,

Of the BRICS
Brazil doesnt make to the top 200
Russia rocks up at 196
The closest India gets is the university of Indiana...]
China doesnt show up 43, or 48 for the mainland.
South Africa manages 124


Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Putins next phase

A linguistic map of Estonia
One in Four "Estonians" is Russian.

Concentrated most strongly in Ida-Viru (Top Right), 75% Russian speaking and Harju (Top Centre), 31.3% Russian speaking.
Sandwiching Laane-Viru, 9.6% Russian

Ida-Viru would be a lost cause with even a modest amount of its residents supporting joining the Russian Federation.
Ida Viru contains Estonias oil shale, oil shale that is burnt to provide 75% of Estonias electricity.
The loss of which would be a disaster, yes, the same oil would be mined from the same area and shipped to the same power plants, but would now be paying taxes to Moscow not Tallin.

Harju comes next, 1 in 3 residents are Russian, a harder sell, but as we have learnt from Ukraine, most people will say "I dont care if this is Russia or Ukraine, I just want peace"
Its also a harder "sell", since the Capital is there,
But the prize is inarguably greater.  Muuga harbour, a year round ice free port.  Its still not an open water port, having to pass through the Denmark gap, but its a year round port.

Inbetween, we have Laane-Viru, which is mostly Estonian, and about which I know nothing.
But, it only has a population of 60,000, it wouldnt take a lot of internal movement to up that number.



Drop, or, you know, drive, a few FSB special forces types in there and begin a low level terror campaign, begin assassinating low level government types, Estonian speaking county governors, judges, MPs, MEPs, police officers, businessmen ect.
The Estonian border is wide open, ask Eston Kohver.

What does Estonia do?
Crack down on the Russians under the bed?
If Estonia doesnt have a race relations issue, it will shortly after it "cracks down".
It will also have a host of legal problems as Russian speaking EU citizens begin waging legal war on Estonia for breaching their EU rights.  The more rules of engagement are piled on the Estonian security services trying to pin down FSB kill teams, the more frequently they will lose control and murder innocent civilians for speaking Russian, and the more legitimate grievances will pile up.

Its 100miles from Russia to Muuga.
The Russian Army can literally be there with a fuck ton of armour in three hours.
All it takes is one incident to go sideways, one "peaceful protest" hiding an agitator with a gun, one squad returning fire, and we have a solid trigger for such an intervention
The Estonian armed forces couldnt hope to even delay the Russians, and in the time it took NATO to react (beyond the token airpower at Amari) it would all be over, it would likely be over before the Estonian armed forces could even mobilise, four fifths of its forces are reserves in the EDL.

An attack on one is an attack on all, but is deploying civil assistance troops an attack?
Is a civil war an attack?
Is crime an article 5 attack?

Is France going to mobilise its army, conscript a few million more and throw them across Europe in to a meatgrinder?  Against a peacekeeping force and in support of the side shooting unarmed protesters?  I'm not seeing that.
Is Germany going to allow its territory to be used to mount this invasion, after Russia threatens to nuke Berlin?

Damned if it does, Damned if it doesnt

A regional Austrian bank and a state resolution bank have just blown up in Austria (well, a few days ago)
The ECBs monetary games have weakened the Euro againt the Franc, the Austrian Banking Group in question borrowed lots of Francs and lent them to house buyers in Eastern Europe.  Those home owners are now underwater and the further the Franc rises the worse that situation gets.

Save Greece, destroy Austria
Save Austria, destroy Greece

And this is make or break, Austria is on the edge here, facing a regional bankruptcy easily big enough to bankrupt the national government,.
If the region is forced to pay up, it cant, if it doesnt, government guarantee ceases to mean a damned thing.

And thats before we look at the racial issue, the ECB is protecting a (Germanuc) bank that made dangerous foreign currency loans over a (Latin) bank that made Euro loans.

Tuesday, 3 March 2015

Grexit Damage

There is over 900 TRILLION Euros of printed currency within the eurozone
A little over 2% of that is printed by Greece.

Its "only" E180bn, but it doesnt appear to be factored anywhere?

God only knows how much electronic currency is out there

Monday, 2 March 2015

Greece's last throw of the dice

Last throw, not next throw.

What if it simply starts its own quantative easing program?
The GCB head walks in to his office, logs in to his PC, and sets the electronic equivalent of the printing press running, and begins buying Greek government debt and 'hard' commodity assets.

How does the ecb stop that?

I can see how it can demand the GCB repays the mistakenly issued currency, but not how it could enforce that demand, how it could undo any trades, or how it could cancel the rogue electronic currency.

Sunday, 1 March 2015

Italian fleet sails for Libya?

There's been rumblings for a while that Italy has been displeased with the Libyan situation
Someone about to throw a punch?