Friday, 15 January 2016

Systems Testing

The point of systems testing (or any testing for that matter) is not to check that something can work, its to understand how hard you have to hit it to break it.
If you did not break it in every manner imaginable, you did not successfully test it.

Proving that under ideal circumstances I can knock out Tyson Fury does not mean under normal circumstances that I can knock out Tyson Fury
That your procedures worked under ideal circumstances doesn't mean that ideal circumstances will occur after go live, they wont.
After go live, everything gets utterly fucked in the first 5 minutes and remains that way forever.

KSR on Generation ships

Id been really looking forward to Aurora but after reading the above I'm kinda questioning buying it.

 Any starfaring ark would therefore be an experiment, its inhabitants lab animals. The first generation of the humans aboard might have volunteered to be experimental subjects, but their descendants would not have. These generations of descendants would be born into a set of rooms a trillion times smaller than Earth, with no chance of escape.
Just as a moral argument, I find it impoverished almost beyond belief.
We live in a world where, regardless of what fancy way you dress it up, women have the absolute right to murder their unborn children.
The rights of the unborn, and indeed, born, are virtually nill in regards to where they live.

In this radically diminished enviroment, rules would have to be enforced to keep all aspects of the experiment functioning. Reproduction would not be a matter of free choice, as the population in the ark would have to maintain minimum and maximum numbers.
In what society are rules not enforced?
Reproduction would be limited, but thats hardly new, limited by resource led child mortality, or resource fearing state fiat, as in China.

Many jobs would be mandatory to keep the ark functioning, so work too would not be a matter of choices freely made. In the end, sharp constraints would force the social structure in the ark to enforce various norms and behaviors. The situation itself would require the establishment of something like a totalitarian state.
Nor is any of the above out of the ordinary, The UK conscripted 5million men from a population of 50 million in to the armed forces, many more were conscripted in to various civil defence organisations and to work in coal mines, with little more freedom than a slave in a Roman Marble Quarry.

Among them are these: first, a demonstrably sustainable human civilization on Earth itself, the achievement of which would teach us many of the things we would need to know to construct a viable mesocosm in an ark;
We have thus far failed to create a "sustainable" (over what timeline exactly?) society yet we have successfully colonised the Earth,

Accelerating at 1g for a year, a 10 year cruise, and decelerating at 1g for a year and you are at Tau Ceti in a DECADE, never mind a life time
Accelerating to relativistic speeds may be impossible, but even if we only keep the engines burning for 6months each way, its only a 20 year journey.
3 months, a 40 year journey, original crew would be struggling at the point,
Even if we can only burn the engines for a month each way, its a 120 year journey and we are on a 3 generation ship.
No mean feat of course.

Sunday, 10 January 2016

A Modern Musing on Total Warfare

In the second world war, the UK mobilised approximately 5 million men out a population of around 50million and suffered around 500,000 dead.

If we assume a fairly even distribution, That population gives us 25million men,
If we assume average life expectancy of 50 (low, but it works for the numbers), that gives us roughly 500,000 per year.
If you discount 0-18, that gives us 16million military aged males.

To mobilise 5million of them, that would be every male aged 18 conscripted until they were 28, and at those mortality rates, you'd lose 10% of them,
Probably more like 18-23 mobilised and 23-33 reserves, 6/8/12 weeks on duty and 6/8/12 weeks off

A lot of people tend to comment that a "mass mobilisation" would be impractical in the modern world.
Given the penetration of women in to the workforce, I wonder if anyone would bloody notice!

And thats why the government shouldnt get involved in the first place

Modern Wind claims it can compete subsidy and carbon tax free against gas and coal

Now, even if we accept this at face value as true, 2 decades of subsidy, corruption, and planning abuse have soured the publics mood to such a degree that the chance of these even being tested here is minimal.

Had government stood aside and done nothing, these turbines would have been developed and built, instead it tried to preempt reality, and now the UKs best sites are already occupied by poor quality turbines, at a huge cost to the end user, and the squandering of any social capital that was available.

Saturday, 9 January 2016

Trying to start a war?

The Police of Cologne, and various other cities, stood and watched as women were robbed, assaulted, and raped.

A protest against this saw 1700 riot troops deployed and the protesters attacked with water cannon

In perhaps the most out of touch political statement since Hitler ordered the 6th Panzer Army to retake the Danube
"Mrs Merkel said: ”The right to asylum can be lost if someone is convicted on probation or jailed. 
"Serial offenders who repeatedly rob or repeatedly affront women must feel the full force of the law.”"
Not, all immigrants who commit sexual assault will be shot, no exceptions
Not, all immigrants who commit sexual assault witll be deported, no exceptions.

No, only "Serial Offenders" will even be looked at.

Thursday, 7 January 2016

Political Odds 07/01/15

The money seems to approve of Corbyns handling of his reshuffle

An improvement from 4.04 to 3.8

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

The Battle of Guiling and unconventional warfare


I frequently come under fire for my views on, unconventional warfare.

Three states, Zhao, Wei and Qi

Zhao and Wei were allied against Qi.
Qi invaded Zhao and laid seige to its capital

Wei marched to the aid of Zhao, but rather than ride to the Zhao Capital and lift the seige by force, they rode on the Qi Capital.

Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Will someone tell ISIS to stop being blown up

Various self appointed experts have spent years telling the world strategic bombing doesnt work, if Russias strategic bombing campaign breaks ISIS, they'll look stupid...

Ambrose is wrong on this one.

Petrol is here to stay

Electric Cars may take an increasing share
They may even be the majority, but thats going to be driven by ever more cars on the road, not a decrease in the number of petrol cars, there certainly isnt going to be a decrease in oil consumption

A Suzuki Celerio with a dual jet engine gets a very impressive 78.4mpg and costs £8499 sticker price
A Peugeot ion gets an impressive magic because it doesnt use petrol and costs £16,995 sticker price

A 100% mark up
£8496 buys you 8496 litres of petrol, 1870 gallons, at 78.4mpg, thats 145,000 miles.

And thats the UKs horrendously taxed fuel.
Strip out tax and for the same price as an electric car, you can get a similar petrol car AND well over 500,000 miles of fuel.

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

OPEC can call all the meetings it wants,

The Saudis arent for turning.

Those of you who went to "liberal left" educational establishments will have learnt that "Cartels" are how the evil capitalists control the world
Those of you who had a real education will have learnt that the best place to be in any cartel, is outside it.

In a free market
Supply and demand is a fact
Supply, Demand and Price is a better fact

As supply increases, either demand increases to match, prices fall to increase demand, or prices fall and the most expensive supply becomes unprofitable and cease
As demand increases, either supply increases to match, prices increase to increase production or prices increase to price the weakest demanders out of the market.

Or some other variation

In a cartel, that isnt quite true.

Producers agree to sell only above a certain price, or only a certain quantity of production, or some other artificial restriction, to ensure that the price remains high, generally.
The key problem Cartels suffer from, is that the "cost" is borne only by the members, but the benefits are accrued by all.

Restricting ourselves to oil, if OPEC members all cut production by 10%, in theory, the price of oil goes up, but it goes up for none OPEC members as well as OPEC members.  The UKs North Sea Oil fields free loaded on OPEC market manipulation, gaining all of the benefit of managed oil prices, whilst being free to drill baby drill.

But we no longer live in a world where the UK is freeloading on OPEC policy.
We live in a world where only 1 of the top 5 oil producers is an OPEC member, and 4 of the top 10.

Dont get me wrong, OPEC still has the muscle to wreck the world oil market, but only for the benefit of everyone else.  OPEC could slash production in half and oil would go ballistic, but then they would only be selling 1 in 5 barrels of oil, not 2 in 5.

Unless The US, Russia, China and Canada join OPEC, OPEC is toothless.

Saudi has acknowledged this fact, Nigeria and Indonesia can throw all the tantrums they want, the facts arent going to change.