Friday, 24 June 2016

So what now

When I started this blog, I was an aspiring politician who wanted Cameron Dead and England Out.

So now, I'm no longer the first, but Cameron is politically dead and England is free, so what now for the raging tory.
I'm no longer particularly raging, I'm not officially a tory, so a more lifestyle blog, a bit more on my hobbies and projects, carry on regardless, something else?


Friday, 17 June 2016

Greater Manchester Police - GiMP Force

Greater Manchester police has 6,500 police officers, working 40hr weeks, for 13,520,000 hours of policing per year
However gimps receive a full 30 holiday days, plus public holidays, meaning they have (over) two work months off.
Leaving us 11,266,666 hours of policing.

There are 27 Greater Manchester MPs

Provind each of them with round the clock protection would require
27*2*24*365 = 473,040 policing hours, 4.2% of the entire police force, and thats before we consider how few of Gimp Forces Gimps are actually available for duty, once we remove those who are on long term sick (and short term I suppose), on training, or simply above any duty that doesnt involve sitting in a meeting or driving a souped up Subaru (GiMP supplied obviously) to another meeting.

And all of the officers would have to be firearms trained

Add in protection for Spouses, Council Chief Execs, Council Solicitors, Mayors, Council Leaders, and you would run out of police officers to even do the essentials, like an speed traps.

Saturday, 4 June 2016

Musing on heating

I have a problem.

It takes about a minute for my boiler to heat the water in my central heating system one degree.
Which means it takes 30-45 minutes for my central heating to come up to temperature and start heating the house, so around 90 minutes to make a noticeable impact on my comfort level.

Partly, this is, no, completely, this is due to an inadequately sized boiler for my home, unfortunately, boilers dont get significantly bigger, we are at the 50% increase in cost for a 10% increase in power output stage.

A 05:30 start means the boiler kicks in for 04:00 at the latest.

I'm considering adding a hot water tank.

The idea being, a 180 litre water tank heated to 50 degrees, attached to a 180 litre heating water system that has probably dropped to 20 degrees over night, will average out at 35 degrees as a starting point.  Obviously, there would now be a two minute heating time per degree, so it wouldnt hit temp any quicker, but it would be hotter quicker, or at least warm quicker.

The longer term plan, would be to use it as a dump load for solar PV.
The 180 litre tank, heated to 90 degrees, would immediately heat the system to temp.

There are of course problems.

In winter, there simply wont be the PV to heat a 180 litre tank to any sort of temp.
In summer, there wont be any need to heat for heating.
But there is hot water,

180 litres at 90 degrees trades down to 360 litres at 45 degrees.
My water flow rate is about 12 lpm (probably more, but at one point thats what I'm getting)(probably should have tested my shower for that point), so theres plenty of scope to "charge" the hot water tank during the day and drain it the next morning.
Its a sub £500 job no matter which way you slice it, I'd just hate to do it for no value added.

Sunday, 29 May 2016


In theory, its a hard science look at a "generation ships" 180 year journey to another star and the troubles they face when the arrive.
In practice, its the sort of soft science fiction SyFy would gobble up, I'm amazed they havent.

My pre read critique was fairly off base, its still a bad book, just for different reasons.
There are frequent "hard science" problems, but they exist purely as plot devices, either they are insurmountable and they drive the plot one way, or they are glossed over.
Prions, insurmountable, reversion to mean and a failing ship, no reason not to dilly dally for 20 years and then mount another 180 year expedition.

The questions posed previously arent mentioned, let alone answered.

Nothing so much as a missed opportunity.

Given the AI capabilities in the books, there is little reason a fleet of seed ships couldnt have been launched in advance, ok, no reason to do that for the first run, but the second generation of generation ships being planned at the end could easily do so.  Resolving much of the arrivial crisis, obviously the dead world or poison world problem persists.

Monday, 16 May 2016

Ten days and then what?

Venezuala is nearing explosion

Obviously, when the implosion occurs , it won’t last long. I believe it will last something like 10 days, but they will be difficult days."
But I'm not sure why the hedgers believe it will be over in 10 days, unless they mean it will go Zombie Apocalypse and dead zone in ten days.

Venezuala cant afford to import anything, it cannot afford to import enough calories to feed its populace.
It doesnt have a huge store of gold it can sell of to import food.

It has a recent history of aggressive governments that have stolen vast sums of money off of international investors, and local investor for that matter.
No one is going to buy Venezualan debt or invest in the fetid pit, even if its dollar denominated, even if its sold under US law, even if its sold at siege scrip rates, possibly especially then, the risk of the government falling and Chavez MkIII defaulting on the debts and renationalising without compensation is too high.

Saturday, 14 May 2016

Denmark on the F35

"“strategic, military, economic, and industrial aspects.”"

Only one of those is actually about the plane

The US will be compelled to defend Denmark if it buys the F35, less if it buys the F18, not at all if it buys the Typhoon, and Europe cant defend Denmark

The US is pretty desperate to sell F35s and can be bullied in to large offset agreements, those wont be forthcoming for the Hornet and would be less advantageous for the Typhoon.

The F35 is still in LRIP so Denmark can snag a componant it can machine for the major fleet production run, the F18 is at the end of its production life so even if they could build bits, there are no other buyers to build them for, the same applies to the Typhoon

Lets not get too excited...

Monday, 25 April 2016

BSEs problem

Matthew Goodwin on the state of referendum polling…
“Once again, the latest opinion polls bring more evidence of an ‘enthusiasm gap’ that exists between Remainers and Leavers. It is the Brexiteers who consistently appear more committed to turning out on June 23rd. To give only one example, last week 72 per cent of voters who said they were planning to vote Leave said they were ‘absolutely certain to vote’. The equivalent figure among Remain voters? 63 per cent.
You can also see this problem for the Remain camp from another angle. According to the most recent poll by ICM, 83 per cent of Ukip voters, who spend their days dreaming of Brexit, say they are ‘certain to vote’. This compares to the notably lower figures of 67 per cent for the generally demoralised Liberal Democrat voters and 64 per cent of Labour voters, some of whom will still be confused about whether Jeremy Corbyn likes or loathes the European Union. This could be a very real problem for Remain.”

BSE has a problem.
Its campaign has been resolutely negative on every front.
Effectively, the EU is shit, but leaving is shitter.

This might be an effective message to stop people voting to leave, however its going to be at least as effective in stopping people voting at all.
Its still two months away, but the only people talking about it in my world are the political fanatics, and even then, they are primarily the leavers from both ends of the spectrum, maybe 5 to 1.

The odds are still strongly favouring remain, but unless things pick up after the locals, BSEs in trouble.

Resistance by Existence

Maintaining the ability to employ force, is, particularly for the weaker side in a conflict, usually a better stratagem than employing and losing the ability to further employ force.

This is a topic that I've danced around a few times at Navy Matters and finally have a coherent idea of, at least coherent for me.

Day one of a war, the aggressor launches large scale airstrikes with escorting CAPs to destroy enemy C4i, ground based air defences and interceptors.
The defender obliges by launching all of his fighters and activating his air defences.

One side wins, one loses, either the defenders destroy enough of the day one strike to prevent a day two strike, or the aggressors destroy so much of the defenders ability to resist that they can run rampant from then on.

A day one F18 strike might be 6 air to air missiles, 2 anti radiation missiles and 3 guided bombs,
A day two F18 strike might be 2 air to air missiles, 2 anti radiation missiles and 7 guided bombs.
No need to carry the extra air to air if you have already shot down the enemy air force

If you dont fancy your chances destroying the enemy airforce on day one, you can, to a point, force day one to occur over and over and over.

If you maintain the ability to launch 30 interceptors, you force the enemy to maintain a very large fighter force escorting its strike packages, every air to air missile carried and returned unfired is a bomb not dropped.
If you maintain the ability to turn on an IADS and inflict heavy losses on a strike package, you force said package to fly jammers, to fly indirect routes, to fly low, to make a single pass to sight and engage the target.

The aggressor cant overfly at medium altitude and laze its own targets if theres a risk that suddenly a few dozen launchers will pop up and shoot back,
The aggressor cant fly essentially unescorted bomber wings if theres a risk that suddenly afew dozen fighters will launch and engage them.

Simply existing is a viable resistance.

Friday, 22 April 2016

Chinese Steel isnt going away

Walling out Chinese Steel is easy, the problem is, its useless, we would need to wall it in, and thats impossible.

EUrope can wall out chinese steel, quite easily, but to what end?
Turkey is rapidly growing its light manufacturing industry, white goods, like washing machines and fridges, its doing so at the expense of places like Portugal and Italy.
If Turkey has access to significantly cheaper steel than Portugal and Italy, that its only going to get more difficult for Portugal and Italy

A tax on the import of steel used for train tracks can rapidly lead to the import of train tracks instead.

There are only 43 countries in the world that make even small quantities of steel, the remaining 140 are going to buy it wherever its cheapest, and thats going to be China.
If the EU and US team up, they can wall off a large portion of the worlds steel demand from Chinas access, but they cant prevent that steel demand relocating to a location where it can access cheap Chinese steel.