Tuesday, 25 November 2014

EUrope never learns

EUropes announced a make or break effort to break out of deflationary depression.
315bn euros, a paltry sum to start with.
But this money is imaginary.

Its 315bn AFTER 15x leverage.
So its actually only 21bn euros, barely a week in US or Japans QE splurges.
But this money comes over THREE YEARS

So EUropes make or break strategy is to find an idiot big enough to stump up 94% of the money and 'invest' in high speed internet for rural areas.
I remember baud!  2mb if fucking lightning fast!

It would less incriminating if EUrope hadn't already tried this!
And given its spent seven years bashing this sort of leveraged 'investment', more fool anyone who hands over the other 94%

Monday, 24 November 2014

what makes Ebola different?

SARS had an untreated fatality rate of around 2.5%
Ebola 75%
With SARS you you had a 1 in 40 chance of death
With Ebola, you have a one in four chance of living.

Friday, 21 November 2014

Another 730 cases and 235 bodies, officialy

Thats 146 cases and 47 bodies per day.
Yesterday recorded more cases than the first three months of the outbreak.
The last 5 days more than the first 6 months.

DpD peaked early October, but that looks more and more like they've ran out of people to do the counting rather than people to count.
The infected from the big dump of cases should be dropping shortly if that wasnt just an accounting glitch, if it was, they will have already dropped.

Mali has dropped another two cases, so at this point its fairly safe to say it'll be exploding on to the scenes there shortly, partly organic cases, partly imports fleeing the hot zone.

Just how dead are the limp dumbs?

The Tories lost ten thousand votes, but kept 13,000
Labour lost 6,500 votes, but kept 6,500
The Lib Dems lost 7500 votes and kept 300

Thats what, 97% of their votes gone.

Now, turnout was down about 7000, so maybe the Lib Dem voters will be back out in force next year, but that looks an awful lot like the party has simply disintegrated.

With Scotland set to vote SNP by a mile (sensible is they want the free money pipe turned up) Lib Dem heartlands will be reduced to a few rural seats, if the greens dont take those.

Saturday, 15 November 2014

Looking at ebola

Numbers just from wikipedia.
Top graph is the cumulative totals, and the second graph gives us the daily cases and deaths.

It all goes to shit in august really doesnt it?
Environmental?  Evolutional?  Dead Doctors?

But its stopped getting worse faster.  We are still looking at 100-150 cases and 50 deaths per day

SotG has a fantastic breakdown of why the numbers suck, but thats not a new thing, and applies equally to the old numbers.
Whats changed recently to stop the new cases being counted to explain the lack of increase?
Or has it simply stopped getting worse faster?

Personally, I think the medical systems involved are simply unable to record more than 150 cases per day.
The split between the fatality rate and the case rate has the same cause, they simply cant record more than 50 deaths.
Mali might take off next, if Ansar Dine or whatever they call themselves today, it'll be across north africa in months.

Wednesday, 12 November 2014

You look aware for 5 minutes and east Asia goes F-in nuts

The east Asian powers are deflating
They can not survive that.  Not even a little bit.
Europe is going to wake up very soon one day and find its neighbors have printed 100% of GDP overnight

In the three months it takes the ecb to make a decision the economy of EUrope will have shut down and disemboweled itself.

Saturday, 8 November 2014

Tesco, an attempt to make sense of the madness

First things first
I have no inside knowledge of the operations at Tesco, or its suppliers, or supermarkets.
I did work at a major food manufacturer for a short while and have extensive experience within the pubs industry.

So, what do I think happened.

Tesco buys sausages, apples, tins of beans and whatever, for about the same price that Daves Corner shop does.  A little cheaper perhaps, but one or two percent.
The final cost is cheaper in one of two ways.
Buy 6 boxes of budweiser, and you would get a seventh for free.
Buy 500 boxes of budweiser, and you would get another 200 free.
For single site delivery.
Your local pub / shop might buy the six, your local supermarket the 500.
They'll both pay the same unit price for the ones they buy, but the freebies distort that wildly.

The second, is retroactive discounts.
If you spend over £1000 in a calender month, you get a 1% discount
Over £5000 in a CM, you get a 2% discount.

So, what did Tesco do?

Well, I think it got burnt on both counts.
As its volumes tailed off, it suddenly found its cost base exploding, which badly hit its profitability.
As its profits took a hit, it looked for ways to improve the picture.
And it found the discounts.
So, suppliers were contacted,
"We only sold X amount, not Y, so we are only entitled to a 5% rebate, not a 6% discount, but we'll take the 6% and make it up to you next month."
And next month arrives, and sales are down, and discounts are taken, and the promise becomes next quarter, then next half year, then after Christmas.

And then a new FD arrives, and realises Tesco has taken ten, fifty, a hundred, two hundred and fifty, who knows, millions of pounds of "discounts" to which it had no right, it owes that money to its suppliers, and an hour in a county court would back that up.

Monday, 27 October 2014

I wonder how many guardian staffers vomited

After writing
'The EU levy has increased because the UKs economy performed better than believed'

Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Tesco is doomed

And I for one cannot wait to piss on the ashes.

Tesco wants to increase its staff count by 25%
The last time I was in Tesco, I joinef the back of a que, not that shortly afterwards, a staff member, clearly a special, joined behind me.  She began informing people joining these (automated) tills were closing and to que elsewhere.
Again, not a short while of this went on.
And then she turned to me, and informed me the tills were closing and I would have to use the others.
I attempted to explain I was already qued, but THREE TIMES she spoke over me.

Merely the latest in a string of piss taking.
Never again.

What's the advantage of aldi?  There aren't a horde of spaztards wandering around the store being 'helpful'.

Sunday, 19 October 2014

The Saudis are clearly at war, but with who, and why

( on my phone watching masterchef so this is all just head work )
Oil prices are cratering
The Saudis traditional control the oil price, by virtue of having lots of low cost oil and limited spending needs.
They can shut down half their fields and not collapse in to bankruptcy.

They aren't cutting production, they appear to be pumping hell for leather.
There's no obvious reason for the Saudis to sell 200 barrels at $50 instead of 100 at $100

So who are they trying to fuck and what effect does this price war have.
Iran is an obvious target.  A regional power with pretensions of being a regional hegemon.
Iran needs $130 a barrel for oil to balance the books.  $120 it can fudge the numbers with a bit of below replacement cap ex and inflation.
Below $80 its entire state budget just becomes a joke.  It won't be scheming to topple the Arabs, it'll be panicking trying to keep food on the table.

Russia is the next obvious target.
Reagan might get the credit for bringing down the USSR, and he was a big part, but the reality is the soviets empire was bankrolled by oil throughout its lifetime. The closure of the tech gap with missiles like vympel were funded by the Arab oil embargo.

The US is the third
Shale gas is game changing on a black swan level of game changing.
Europe might have lost its marbles but the US hasn't.
Iran needs 130 a barrel to fund the state.
The US needs 70 a barrel to fund the drill site.
Very shortly, the oil boom could pop.

Fourth, Solar
The Saudis have long been of the opinion that the stone age didn't end because the world ran out of stones (technically incorrect) and the oil age won't end because we run out of oil.
$1 a watt is probably out of reach, but I wonder how the barrels per watt ratio staccks up now?

I think anyone looking for an economic case for the oil price is barking up the wrong tree.