Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Waging War on Iran

Taking a break from my series on waging conventional war on Argentina, I thought I'd take a look at waging unconventional war on Iran.

Like it or not, Iran is a very, very tough nut to crack
Alexander managed it, as did Umar, but neither conquest held for long.


Tehran, with a 1250km overlay, and a 1750km overlay.
If you operate from the Arabian Sea, you have a 2500km round trip over enemy airspace.  Its simply not possible to surpress air defences over that length over a long period of time.
Even just enough for the F35 to sneak through.
Unless you're commiting the entire US carrier fleet, for a sustained period, hitting Tehran from the south is going to be a bloody affair.

The North West provides an interesting pocket, through Georgia, Azerbaijan and then into Iran, but its tricky.  Turkey is mighty prickly about letting major warships through Constantinople, and even if those palms can be greased, Russia has ample ability to cause trouble, by locating your strike wings and passing that information on, or simply collecting intelligence.  Do we really want to hand the Russians thousands of hours of encrypted radio transmissions, radar outputs, and indeed, give Russian radar practice picking out US carrier aircraft?

But when thats all said and done, Iran is very vulnerable.  Not to "Operation Irani Freedom", but to SOE.


Iran is a "Liberals" great white hope, and a "Conservatives" warning given form.

Only 60% of "Iranians" are ethnic Iranians
Only 55% of Iranians speak Persian  as a first language


Like it or not, almost half of the Iranian populace doesn't identify itself as Iranian.

The largest minority, are Azeri, at almost 20% of the populace.
And they are located in a pocket on the north west, with a convenient border to, AZERIbaijan.

Azerbaijan is no match for Iran in open war, but the (Covertly) CIA trained, armed, and paid "Greater Azerbaijani Freedom Army" could bleed Iran white, especially if a US/Azerbaijan mutual defense pact prevents Iran hitting the GAFAs bases.  Bombing Tehran might be hard,but a single Apache squadron could annihilate the Iranian Tank Corps on its march to Baku.

But the Azeri arent the only oppressed minority, they are simply the largest.

The next largest, are the Kurds.
Supporting the Kurds is politicaly di8fferent, because of their tensions with Turkey, but giventhe fall of Kemalism and the rise of MadCap Erdogan, its reasonable to argue that the US could afford to burn Turkey (and Iraq) and throw its weight between a free, independant, and financialy viable (based on Iraqi oil) Free Kurdistan.

Behind them we have the Balochs, Pakistans hatred of Iran isnt exactly secret, even if it isnt overt, but there are strong reasons for Pakistan to welcome "Greater Balochistan" uniting with Pakistan.
Iran has received a lot of Indian aid money recently, much of it targeted economic warfare aimed squarely at Pakistan.

The Arabs have remained loyal so far, bnut whilst Khuzestan might not have been thrilled to join Iraq, its more likely that Hormozgan would be up for join the UAE.
If the Caspian Gilaki and Mazandarani can be convinced to revolt as well, Iran could feasibly be stripped of half its population and two thirds of its oil/gas.


Bricks of C4 are cheap.
Radio, Infrared and pressure plate detenators are cheap.
Assault rifles are cheap, and ammunition for them practicaly free.

At barely any cost, and with very little difficulty, the US could plunge Iran into an unwinnable civil war.

For $500,000,000 (the cost of 10 or 20 fighters, give or take), the US tied up 115,000 Soviet Troops for a full decade, and killed or wounded 70,000 of them.

What would a billion dollars do to Iran?

Saturday, 26 May 2012

Give us some money!

Lord Fink has sent TrT a begging letter.

Requesting I give more of my hard earned heavily taxed income than I already have done, so the Conservatives can "carry on their good work"....

What good F-in Work?

Fink, allow me to put it plainly.
When I have my NHS opt out cheque, my state pension opt out cheque, my state unemployment insurance cheque and my children have those, and their LEA opt out cheques, we will discuss funding your little campaign managers.

I am owed £150,213 for charged but unwanted or unused services
Plus another £5563 per year from here on out.


When I receive what I'm owed, you will receive what I feel like donating.

Monday, 14 May 2012

IT Warrior

With thanks to Think Defence

IT in the armed forces remains remarkably undeveloped.
Many of the "Gucci" applications (see link) are toys, Funky toys, but still toys.
Most of the "real" applications are simply about doing what we did on slowly on paper 50 years ago, faster on a laptop tomorrow. 

We'll be serious about IT when a Major doesnt radio a platoon to order them forward, he gets his ipad out and drags the platoons icon icon from their current location to their new location on a googlemaps (or better) real world map.
The platoons iphones (soldiers) and ipads (officers) all beep and they get their movement orders.
Or the above for a Lord Millitant and his 20 Brigades

Want to call in fire support?
Soldier whips out his iphone, drags the fire support icon from the side onto the building he wants destroying.  Info box pops up detailing the next available fire support and a countdown starts.
soldier pokes yes, and phone pings fighter/gun battery/submarine with a target and a time to hit it.

Need resupply?
Open your logistics tab, either your preloaded favourites tab and select the items you need, or open up the full list and search.
Fill your boots and ping, off it shoots as an order to the logisitcs hub, who pick it, pack it, and whack it on to trucks.

Apache pops up from behind hill, longbow identifies 80 armoured vehicles, ping, suddenly every soldier in army has a live location for each of those vehicles.
Apache pops down behind hill, and that location greys out, and a timer appears.  So anyone and everyone can see a tank was seen at that location and how long ago it was seen.
Overlays can be flicked on and off denoting the areas they could have moved too.

On the ball artilery officers get 80 exact targets to pulverise.


Thats IT taken seriously,
And thats winning wars.

Sunday, 13 May 2012

Ruthless Commonality - Boring but essential

UKAFC has a piece on the T26.
Its going to be powered by yet another gas turbine.

Is there an engine out there that the Royal Navy doesnt use, beyond nuclear, the cheapest by a mile?

We've just spengt a small fortune designing a diesel and gas and electric hybrid system.
With a tiny bit more work, we could have thrown in some batteries, and have created a single open, modular propulsion system architecture.

Flexible enough to power everything from the smallest mine hunter to the biggest carrier, simply by adjusting the number of diesels and gas turbines, the number of batteries they feed in to and the number of pods they drive.

But that would be simple.

You could give every man in the army a different calibre and it would cost less than this folly.

Saturday, 12 May 2012

Bringing the Hammer Down Hours 6 to 12

With enemy runways punctured, support infrastructure at the three key fields crushed and anything in the air either shot down, crash landed, or overseas.

Overseas is out of the war, theres simply no chance Brazil is going to let Argentina use a Brazillian airbase to launch fighters (especialy considering what we've already done to Argentinas airbases)

So, 28 more C 's inbound, what shall we hit?

Buenos Aires
Hard

Luckily, We have three targets all virtualy right next door

From left to right
The National Congress
The Presidential Palace
The Ministry of Defence

Again, 28 aircraft are available.
To be on the safe side, I'd still want fighters and SEAD, say, 3 of each, to allow for a pair to cover a 2 hour slot each.

That leaves 22 bombers, each carrying a rather stunning 6 2000lb bombs, giving us 132 in total.
Again, I've marked targets, both small and large.
The small ones were just items that looked cultural significant, I'm thinking Nelsons column.

Why not spend seven of them on pretty things?
Anyway, the other 125 I'd just use to completely obliterate the three large targets.
Who knows, we might get lucky and kill the president and the legislature who voted for war, and the civil servants who planned it.


I know some people consider enemy leaders bad form, but the first bombs dropped in the second gulf war were aimed at Sadam, and we have a massive operation in Afghanistan whos sole task is to identify, locate, and assassinate Taliban Officers.
Not to mention of course, throwing Osama off a Carrier deck in the middle of the ocean.  Shooting him first was probablhy a kindness too far, anyway.


And yes, I am aware that I have made no effort to actualy liberate the islands yet....

Friday, 4 May 2012

The Not So Secret Ballot?

Interest event at the polling station.

Brief time line.

I handed over polling card
Tard behind desk asked my name, somehow I was to have forgotten it during the five intervening seconds?
Tard wrote my unique voter ID on a sheets
Tard wrote something from the back of my voting slip on same sheet, in same box.

Was the long code on the back of my voting slip a unique number?
Was that number recorded next to my name?
So do the council, and therefore the local mafia know who I voted for?

Thursday, 3 May 2012

Bringing the Hammer Down, the first 6 hours.

With the runways out of commission, temporarily at least, its time to inflict some damage. Argentina has three runways within striking distance of the islands. Villa Reynolds, Tandil and Enrique Moscini. Reynolds and Tandil base the two strike units, and are just inside the 1750km limit I set for refueled strikes. Moscini base a transport squadron, but its placement within unrefueled strike range means its almost certain to base at least some of the strike jets. A picture of the three dangerous bases, with their refueled ranges, and the sweet spot in which a carrier could wait for its moment to strike. The furthest, Reynolds, is 2490km from the staging area, technically within the range of the F35c, 2520km, although I remain unsure if that’s a return range or not?


The day one sortie rate of the CVF will be 110 launches, in out 6 hour window, that gives us 28. The first target, would be Moscini Firstly, even with enemy airfields down, we need to send in a fighter pair, they could always have moved a few fighters to a civilian airport, or some could have been airborne before the first strike. Added to that, we would need a SEAD pair. Argentina has no serious air defences, but theres no sense taking risks. Four more jets, each packing 6 2000lbers allow us to rather badly damage 24 targets. I picked these. On top of that of course, the Fighter and SEAD pair will be able to pack a couple of bombs as well, which can be dumped on the runway and taxiway in case anything survives the bombing mission. There were also what was obviously the residential accommodation of the airmen, which I graciously decided to give a miss, and of course, in case I’ve miss identified the airport…..


Secondly, Tandil.
Only found 13 targets here, so, perhaps extra drop tanks, or fewer jets.





Thirdly, Reynolds
A mere 12 there.





So plenty of spares, and every building wrecked, if not leveled.
Remember, these buildings are weather shelters, not Iraqi bomb proofs, which themselves lost that title once they started taking direct hits from 2000lbers