Thursday, 28 October 2010

david cameron, once again i implore you, resign.

david, if you are the man, this is not the hour.
I fear this is the hour, and you are simply not the man.

Your stance on the EU drove away good, nay, great men like Dr North, costing us a majority at the election.
You have now found yourself powerless to resist increasing the tribute we must pay.

There is little glory in standing aside, but there is honour in it.
Nothing better awaits you.

Monday, 25 October 2010

David Heath Doesnt Get It

Con Home

Cameron promises low interest rates, help for exporters and capital investment in 'dash for growth' speech to CBI


Cameron promises inflation, red tape and picking winners, because it worked so well last time.
Low Interest Rates are a green light to inflation, nothing surprising here, I've been banging on for years that the only way out of the Brown Bust is soft default on a biblical scale, help for exporters, well obviouslym, forms and targets and standards, and capital investment, in who? Why handpicked winners...

Government has an unavoidable role in helping business: "I won’t engage in some sterile debate between laissez faire and hands-on government. The question isn’t ‘should government be involved?’ because it is involved. It taxes. It regulates. It invests. The real question is what is the right kind of involvement?"

Dont Tax, Dont Regulate, Dont Invest.
There, thats the involvement government should force its citizens to have.
If you want a share in the profits of business David, why dont you invest your fortunes?
If you want a say in the running of business, why dont you invest your fortunes?
Oh Look, investment.

Helping UK exporters is a priority .... that’s why I have put the promotion of British commerce and international trade at the heart of our foreign and economic policy .... At the European Council this week, I’ll be calling for structural reforms of the single market so Europe makes a stronger contribution to world growth.

You dont have a foreign policy, you gave that right to Europe, you can beg Europe all you want, but they've lost share of world GDP almost every year for the past 30, accelerating all the while.

Britain is on a path to lower business taxation: "Within five years, we will have cut corporation tax from twenty-eight percent to twenty-four percent

Thats right business man, in future, I'll only take 24% of your profits.
Its what, 10% in Switzerland?

our new one-in, one-out rule for regulation will have stopped the rise of domestic red tape.

A promise that he wont make things any worse (unless the EU makes him) (which it will).

£30bn investment in transport infrastructure over four years: "

Trains dont work.
Now, if he promised to stop looking the Road Tax Take for trains, and instead built more motorways...

Mark Littlewood of the IEA issued an immediate reaction and regretted a lack of emphasis on deregulation:

Cant argue with that.


Can we just skip forward to 2015 when The Tories are annihilated at the polls, or even better 2020 when Carswell takes power. I'd like to experience a Thatcherite Economic Miracle before I'm too old to benefit if thats all right

Global Warming on the Roads

There was some Global Warming on the roads this morning, a big black sheet of it sent me careening out of my side street on to the main road.

Its OCTOBER!.
Get your woolies out and start saving to pay your gas bill, its going to be a bad one this year.

I is for ignorance?

A new newspaper has launched, I can only describe it as the Independant n Tabloid Form

A quick run through the puff piece is illuminating.

All the quality journalism you need: i is a newspaper for people who want a concise, intelligent daily briefing; a newspaper that shows you all the stories you really need to know, at a glance; a quality read for busy people in the modern world



Concise, Intelligent, All you need to know?
How is a two page spread explain that Rooney is no longer Englands Darling (was he ever?) concise, intelligent or need to know.
Concise would be a line.
Rooney out of public favour, caught shagging hookers

Intelligent I cant help with.
Need to know?
Who needs to know?
His wife? His wifes divorce lawyers?
No bugger else though. I'd survive without knowing.

Commentators you can count on: You won't find acres of dry Opinion pages in i. You will find some of the UK's most influential and exciting opinion-formers, from Julie Burchill to Johann Hari, Steve Richards to Christina Patterson, Deborah Ross to Robert Fisk.

Who?

And thats about as far as I can be bothered going.

Friday, 22 October 2010

Fox Must Go

Fox must go.
If he has any wish take up the mantel of warrior of the right the blogosphere seems intent on forcing upon him, or indeed, the smallest amount of integrety, he has no choice but to resign.

"We must act ruthlessly and without sentiment. It is inevitable that there will be the perception of winners and losers as we go through this process.
"But defence as a whole will, and must, come out in a stronger position."


That has not been met.
There is no arguement that the armed forces today are stronger than they were 6 months ago. None.
You may argue that the armed forces are not in as bad a position as they could have been, that it could be worse, but there is no room for an arguement that it is better.

The only area where they is even tiniest room for such an arguement, is with the carriers, but a single operational squadron of 12 FrogPhoons (IT WILL NOT BE F35C's) flying off a single Catrap Carrier is not an improvement over two fully loaded Carriers.

The Fleet has been cut, the army has been cut, the airforce has been devestated, whats improved?
The only way Fox could have kept his word was if one force was not only spared cuts, but actualy gained resources, if one of the grand strategies was actualy picked.
None Were.
Salami was sliced.
Fudge was packed.

Fox, resign, or have broken your word.

Thursday, 21 October 2010

The Falklands and the Cuts

Many Bloggers seem to be of the opinion that the cuts have imperilled the Falklands.

Now, I personaly dont believe this to be the case, and here follows why.

Firstly, the forces on the islands havent changed.
There are still the 4 Typhoons which, given sufficient warning, can destroy the 41 aircraft in the Argentine Air Force with relative ease, and thats assuming they can loft everything in one go.
But, lets assume they get lucky, the aircraft are destroyed on the ground.

They still have to land an army.
Now, they do have a parachute brigade although only 5 C-130s to deploy them, but they would still probably be able to land enough forces before the British could destroy them, although again, its touch and go, the average Argentine Infantryman has never fired a shot in anger, the Average British Infantryman has spent 6 months in Afghanistan.
Its not likely to be a pleasent experience, 300 paratroopers with a bad landing might find themselves being hunted down by a battle hardend RM company rather than seizing the airfield intact. Time is an issue, we'll be airlifting like buggery ourselves and if we can get a few planes landed teeming with reinforcements, its a no hoper.
But again, lets assume they seize the airport, the islands are theres and they begin reinforcing the occupation.

By Air, theres not a lot we can do to stop them, but by Sea, well, the Silent Service doesnt disclose its location, but it would make sense for one to be hanging around, carrying a mix of 30+ heavy weight torpedoes and Tomahawk Missiles.
Even at Speed its a 10 hour trip from the mainland to the islands, thats a long time for 4 Destroyers and 3 Submarines, all from the early 80's, to defend a convoy with no ASW helicopters or towed array Sonar.
Again, against swiftsure, its at least looking reasonable, against Astute, its suicide, well, mass murder really, since the people giving the orders wouldnt be thes ones drowning in the cold waters of the South Atlantic.

So, they've captured the airport and flown in as many men as the Airbridge can support, the islands are theres bit for the British Reaction.
We choose to react.

Obviously, The Argentine Navy could be destroyed in Port by the on station submarine with its Tomahawks, if theres not one, or we dont want to admit there is one, the Submarines leading the Task Force can do that.
But anyway, first action, Argentine Fleet destroyed in Port.
Theres simply nothing they can do to prevent that, except perhaps have their fleet sank at sea.

Now, even at this point, this war isnt looking like its going to gain them much, the islands for the fleet?
But the war isnt over yet. Without even bending any rules, the Submarine Fleet can begin destroying The Argentine Civillian and Military Headquarters, if the Legislature and President is in the building at the time, so much the better.

The Task Force would be sailing under the protection of the T45, a ship that dwarves the T42 in any performance measure, attacking it in a Skyhawk would be pointless, you might as well attack in a 3 Deck Ship of the Line.
It would also likely be under the protection of reactiviated Harriers, but even if its not, its hardly an issue.

The Landing force has taken a bit of a beating by the recent cuts, but we could still land a Mechanised Brigade, and provide a reasonable amount of cover through the Apache Fleet.
That Mechanised Brigade would be resisted by, maybe, three light infantry Brigades, and would tear them to pieces.

Thats before we look at anything exotic, like borrowing a few SeaShadows from the French and Cracking Hydrostations.

The Big Defence Cut

Conventional Thinking was that the armed forces were facing a £35bn shortfall in the procurement budget.
Most sites have spent quite some time dreaming up how this will be filled, but as far as I'm aware, no ones grabbed it yet.

The RAF is being reduced to a single fighter fleet.

If the Carriers operate a 50ish strong FrogPhoon fleet for the carriers, and the RAF jsut get the Typhoon fleet, that leaves 100ish F35B's no longer in the budget.

At around £60mn a pop, that saves £6bn in procurement and with running costs of around £10mn per year, that saves £25bn in running costs.
£31bn, with the balance covered by the other cuts.

Looks like the RAF lost, but in the best way, assuming Typhoon is finaly mated with its full weapons load.

Lewis Page repeats his nonesense

Lewis Page Repeats his nonesense

"This will have been immensely popular across most of the RN, whose wildly overmanned officer corps is dependent on there being plenty of frigates and destroyers for any hope of promotion - or indeed continued employment. But it's not just Cold War thinking - it's early Cold War thinking. As soon as capable antisubmarine helicopters came into service in the 1970s the antisubmarine frigate was obsolete"

An ASW Helicopter costs at least £40,000 an hour to fly.
There are 24 hours in a day and 365 days in a year.
Keeping a a single ASW Helicopter airborne for a year costs £350 million at a minimum!
The entire escort Fleet cost a mere £1,781,487,000 in 08/09.
5 Helicopters are not more capable than the escort fleet, they just arent.

Theres a few other stupid statements from the self promoting moron, he proclaims carrier aviation was essential in Iraq 2003, but somehow the 1st Armoured Divison with all those heavy tanks wasnt, these are things I wouldnt wish to dirty my blog with.
But theres one that I must.
He complains that Cameron has cut Chinooks for Afghanistan.
That is a lie.
You Mr Page are a Liar, LIAR, and I hope you suffer the material losses required to try and sue me for libel.
The Chinooks cancelled are not in Afdghanistan today, they arent on a Point class ship en route, they arent at Catterick or on Salisbury Plain being tested, they arent even in the finishing stages of production.
The Cancelled Chinooks wont be available for use in Afghanistan until 2015 at the earliest, we'll be out of Afghanistan by 2014 at the latest.
Calling it a cut for Afghanistan is not a distortion, it is a lie.

The ignorant hypocritical American?

Now, I'm not one to bash Americans as ignorant loud mouthed know nothings, but but this piece is making me reconsider.

The Author is basicaly complaining that the UK is cutting its armed forces, and, in his opinion, is just expecting the US to support it with whatever it needs.
Now, thats incorrect, and I could have ignored it as such, if he didnt continue.

His main gripe, as confirmed in the comments, is that in future, the UK will only
Provide 10,000 Men for whatever war the US launches for that presidential term.

"There is also the issue that our greatest ally cannot function as just that any longer. Just after we've learned a hard lesson on unilateralism, we've lost our best and biggest coalition partner who now could only provide a token force if we run into trouble."

I've seen some double speak in my time, but thats got to take the biscuit.

Wednesday, 20 October 2010

And the Strategy is

?
Someone?
Anyone?

Please tell me someone can see the strategy?
Continental?
Maritime?
Contributory
We're keeping the soldiers to be able to deploy 30,000 of them at once as a big fuck off armoured division (Corps?). But we're not keeping the Navy to deploy that force overseas where it can be an effective big fuck off armoured division, nor are we keeping enough heavy tanks and artilery for it to be a big fuck off armoured division in EUrope either.
And Neither are we keeping the ISTAR assets to allow otgher nations to plug into a UK command structure to create a more effective whole.

But its ok, We wont abandon the Mayor of Kabul to his fate until the Americans do.

Mmmmm.
Dave has packed some fudge into this strategy, but its not tasty fudge.

Monday, 18 October 2010

Does demobilisation increase the likelyhood of war?

I mentioned such a thought on the D&F blog and Sven shot it down rather high handedly, and to be fair, I couldnt really think of an example that worked.

But now I have

Germany felt it could use its quickly mobilising army to knock out France in the first few weeks of war before they could mobilise, and then knock out Russia, which would take at least 6 weeks to put its army into some sort of order.

Germany believe that pursuing a diplomatic solution would merely allow Frace and Russia the time they needed to mobile, and then they could win the war convincingly.

Thursday, 7 October 2010

Cameron Prepares to Sacrifice Membership for own Vanity

That was pretty much the message I got from his speech, "Your country Needs You" us only ever trotted out when a dictatorship suspends your opinion and orders you at gun point to charge another gun point.
And people are paid to write this bilge?

Ed WestCame to similar conclusions, but I thought of it first :p
Or before he posted it anyway.

Interesting take on the Big Society.
TrT is convinced it will fail, because for all its talk of people power and localism, its still based on what whitehall decrees is local and important.
The idea of just cutting government spending to pre Great War levels, IE sub 10% of GDP, and just letting people get on with it would be abhorant to Wisteria Bunkerites, but what could be more big society?

Wednesday, 6 October 2010

Astutes for India!

TrT is proud to announce the launch of his Astutes to India Campaign.
India is looking for 6 new AIP submarines and has appropriated $11bn to buy them.

The first three Astutes, have cost £1.3bn, so, depending on exchange rates, we are a little over budget, however capability wise, there is simply no comparison between an Astute and a Scorpene or Type 212.
With costs due to come down as production problems are ironed out, and with the UK having nothing else to build at Barrow, the sale of 6 boats to India would, even with tax exemptions to Barrow so they can meet the price, preserve jobs we really do need, an bolster a friendship with a distant friend.

With this in mind, I have asked the MoD and FCO via FoI what they are doing to help any such sale, and am off to write to a few MP's who may be interested, but it would be helpful if it wasnt just me.

T45 Fires at last!

Thank God
I was worrying they were never going to actualy work

Tuesday, 5 October 2010

Gold Bubble Near Popping?

Apparently the wealthy are now buying physical gold by the ton, literaly, in one case.
Is this a sign that the biggest idiots have arrived at the party, traditionaly, the time to bail out?

When did buying prime farm land become a bit of a popular fad?

TrT can only again appologise

For failing to hold the defeated tory Regional Governor to account, but I'm just so depressed with the pointless innanity of it all that I really cant be bothered.
Its just unbelievable that welfare payments to the middle classes has been allowed to become such a big story, and been mishandled in such a way.
Anyone would think David had beaten a baby to death against a tree.

New Reading List

Grand Logistics.
Not really grand logistics, but a numbers based look at Carriers.

Obviously Pro Carriers, be nice if they admitted that, but an entertaining read.

Friday, 1 October 2010

Why are Labour doing so well?

Asks John Redwood
Well, it seems a fair question.
Perhaps a better one is why are the Tories doing so badly?

Thats a much easier one.
The Tories were elected promising a referendum lock on more powers to EUrope.
Yet since the election, powers have been transfered at a far quicker rate than under Labour, most obviously control over the economy and law.
Are you a liar Mr Redwood?
Or are the other Tory MP's?

The Tories were elected promising not to alter the electoral system.
Yet an AV referendum is being planned
Further Lies Mr Redwood?

The Tories were elected on a promise to cut spending.
Yet Government spending has increased by 10%.
Yet more Lies.

The Tories were elected on a promise of localism.
Yet Comrade Pickles recently suspended a building project in my local area so he could check the plans. He approved.
Yet more Lies.

"The Deterant is staying!" Screamed Cameron from the pulpit, yet now its on the block, but for PR reasons, we'll get an expensive none deterant.
Materials for the Afghan War will be procured with all haste!
Yet the only procurement so far has more jackals, a vehicle responsible for more deaths in Afghanistan than another.

Taxes are up, another 1p on petrol today, thats £5 a year extra for me to travel to work. Not much for an MP like yourself, but those of us who dont get £150k a year pay and expenses are already overwhelmed.


Conservative Manifesto - An Invitation to Join the Government

Sure.